Imagine this: you’re driving in the right lane at the speed limit on a motorway when another car whizzes past you on the left and then swerves into your lane without warning. The other car then slows down until it is only a few feet away from you, forcing you to make a quick decision to slow down, change lanes or even turn right to avoid a collision. Now imagine the same scenario with two satellites orbiting 22,000 miles from Earth at 6,800 miles per hour.
This exact space scenario occurred in 2015 when a Russian satellite approached a commercial satellite and then stayed in place for five months, failing to communicate its intentions.
As space becomes more crowded with satellites of all sizes and types, the need for each nation to actively participate in the Space Security Coordination System (SSCS) grows.
In 2009, the United States created the Satellite Information Sharing Programme (SISP), which provides basic, emergency and advanced location data and services free of charge to participants from any country. The system has evolved to include notification procedures for close approaches and a means of exchanging information through a public website. Most spacefaring nations participate in the data-sharing and communications programme. However, a few countries, notably Russia and China, do not participate in the programme or follow its guidelines, which increases the likelihood of collisions between satellites and the creation of space debris in the event of satellite break-ups. Space debris can remain in orbit for years, posing additional dangers to other satellites because the debris is uncontrolled and often too small to be tracked.
In 2015, after the Russian satellite incident, Russia made several attempts to communicate with the Russian agency that operated the satellite, but there was no response from the Russian side. Intelsat, the private company that owns the commercial satellite, formally complained to the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) about the satellite’s “potentially dangerous behaviour”. At the time, an existing safety coordination system was in place to prevent and deal with such incidents.
All States, including Russia, should follow an established safety process to help prevent accidents and strengthen existing safety norms. The process begins with the exchange of contact information through a public website, space-track.org, where locations and other information on known satellite activity are shared. The United States provides participants with notifications of expected satellite “rendezvous” so that satellite owners and operators can co-operate on satellite manoeuvres to avoid collisions.
Of course, Russia is not the only country capable of bringing satellites into close proximity. The U.S., China and Russia all have a history of developing satellites that can perform rendezvous operations. The same manoeuvres that allowed astronauts and supplies to reach the space station are now used to rendezvous much smaller unmanned satellites. Coordinated rendezvous operations are challenging – since 2005, there have been at least three collisions between fully coordinated manoeuvring satellites. Collisions are more likely to occur when one satellite is manoeuvring near another and there is no communication between satellite operators.
Since 2011, Russia has not responded to any attempts to communicate with them through the system.The 2015 satellite incident was just one of several proximity manoeuvres that were not coordinated with nearby satellites. A number of countries, including the United States, openly use satellites for in-orbit inspection, where a separate satellite is used to observe other satellites from a safe distance. Speculation that Russia may be building kamikaze satellites with the aim of hitting a target satellite, rather than just inspecting it from a distance, makes the situation even more worrisome.
Recent U.S. government reports confirm that both Russia and China are developing satellites designed to hit targets rather than just inspect them. The development of Russian and Chinese on-orbit satellite attack systems highlights the need for greater transparency among nations, increased commitment and adherence to space-aware security programmes, and international rules to hold non-compliant actors such as Russia accountable.
The United States set an example of increased transparency by creating the Space Security Coordination System in 2009. Russia and other spacefaring nations can demonstrate their commitment to transparency and security by joining the Network of Responsible Space Nations. For those new to the network, the first step is to provide contact information to the space security programme and respond when notified of an expected close approach.
If Russia or any other nation fails to respond to the notification, then the international community would do well to consider rules that penalise non-compliance with emerging international norms in space.